2024 United States presidential election in Montana
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1] Though somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton did so in 1992 nor has it been competitive at this level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. Montana is favored to be carried by the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Montana Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Republican primary
The Montana Republican primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[3] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[6] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[7] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[8] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[A] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[B] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[A] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Joe Manchin Independent | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 49% | 28% | 6% | 4% | 13% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Montana
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- ^ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
